Steve Cieciuch’s 4th Quarter Analysis of 2011 Real Estate

425 Depot Avenue - Town of Telluride

Written by Steve Cieciuch (Chet-chu), Managing Broker

2011 is behind us and year end totals were lower than anticipated, however, December activity was on the rise with $29M worth of real estate going under contract. Currently there is $68.6M worth of property under contract which equates to 27% of the entire year of sales production in 2011, which should bode well for 2012.

The overall dollar volume of $247.4M for 2011 was down 22% versus 2010, while overall transaction volume was up 17%.  The biggest drop in dollar volume occurred in Mountain Village with sales volume down 40%; however transaction volume was up 22% primarily because of the significant number of Peaks Hotel sales. Telluride experienced a 7% decrease in sales volume, while the number of transactions was up 7%.  Overall sales volume for the balance of San Miguel County real estate was down 5%, while transaction volume was up 22%.  Interestingly, the number of overall transactions at 383 was the highest since 2007, while dollar volume was the lowest in the last 4 years.  2011 experienced a preponderance of lower priced transactions while buyers in the high-end of the marketplace continued to demonstrate hesitancy.

October: Fourth quarter sales started out fairly strong with $21.2M in sales for October which ranked as the 5th best month of the year while November and December ranked as the 1st and 3rd poorest months of the year.  This makes sense as market activity dropped significantly in late August and September due to the US debt downgrade, debt ceiling gridlock and continuing European sovereign debt concerns.  As transactions typically close 45 to 60 days after upticks in activity, November and December bore the brunt of the decrease of late summer and fall showing activity.  Telluride real estate was very headline sensitive all year long and these underperforming numbers paralleled the uneasiness in global markets across the board.

Notable sales in October included Rivercrown Unit 1, a 3 bedroom 3.5 bath condominium along the banks of the San Miguel River which closed for $3,006,000 or $1,075.91 per s.f.  Six Mountain Village condominiums closed in October totaling $2,551,240 with a 2 bedroom Granita Unit closing for $995,000 or $677 per s.f.  An older Mountain Village home in the Hood Park neighborhood closed for $2,950,000 or $475 per s.f., also a log and stone home built in 1988 in Elk Run closed for $2,150,000 or $367 per s.f.  A bank-owned sale of a spec home in the Idarado subdivision, located several minutes to the east of Telluride, closed for $3,225,000.  This was the last sale for a spec home near the Town of Telluride, as all new developer inventory has been absorbed. October ended up down 1% in overall sales volume compared to October 2010 and down 7% in transaction volume.

November: During November, a 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath home located on Tomboy Road in Telluride closed for $3,410,000 or $860 per s.f.  One of the notable sales for 2011 closed for $4,475,000 in Mountain Village.  This slopeside 7-bedroom, 7.5-bath residence for $615/ s.f. ended the month up 12% in overall dollar volume and down 4% in number of transaction compared to November 2010.

December: December experienced 6 sales of Mountain Village condominiums totaling $6,371,500, with a notable short sale of a See Forever 4 bedroom unit at $1,650,000. In addition, a significant bank sale occurred; the Cortina project closed for $3M and included 4 lots with 15 partially completed townhomes which began construction in 2007.  Vacant land in the County experienced an uptick with 4 sales totaling $1,534,060.  Overall, December ended up 11% in dollar volume versus 2010 and up 36% in transaction volume.

In December two significant homes went under contract listed at $14.9M and $7.9M respectively, Sound of Music Ranch Parcels B and C listed at $11.4M and $7.4M on Wilson Mesa contracted, as well as a 42-acre parcel with guest home at the Preserve listed for $5,850,000.  Assuming these properties close, this could start a resurgence for the high-end market which was on hiatus in 2011.  Anecdotally, I am getting the sense of pent up demand. If there is any sustained stretch of predictability in world markets, combined with the lack of new developer inventory being added to the market place, I believe 2012 will show significant improvement over 2011.

 

Real Estate & Snow Update

Enjoying A Groomer Run At The Telluride Ski Resort

Written by Aric Maloy, broker

The holiday season brought many homeowners, returning guests and new visitors to Telluride. When other resorts were struggling with lack of snow, Telluride fared pretty well considering it had not had much of the white fluffy stuff floating down. One great quality that Telluride possesses is that it does not take a large accumulation of snow to cover our mountain. Couple that with Telluride Ski and Golf blowing new snow for the World Cup early last month, Telluride is a packed powder skier’s paradise. I was up yesterday and had one of my better ski days of the year cruising down See Forever and several other freshly groomed runs. Telski continues to blow new snow on the ski area ensuring that the conditions will be in top quality condition for all of us. Plus, it is snowing right now!

As for Real Estate, January always gives us a moment to observe the state of the market from the past year and currently. According to Telluride Consulting, Telluride and County decreases in dollar volume were minimal, but Mountain Village showed a significant decline in dollars. Apparently most high-end property sales in MV were on hold in 2011. The good news is that every market segment showed improvement in overall sales activity in 2011…the most sales since 2007! All signs point to a positive outlook for 2012!

A brief overview:

-Ski Ranches in particular has seen a substantial increase in sales within the past 18 months. There will continue to be good opportunities with reduced pricing within this subdivision. The quality product tends to not last long if priced appropriately. Buyers are recognizing the value of this subdivision with its location/privacy/ski proximity and larger lot sizes.

- Mountain Village homes have seen a bit of a correction, but there appears to be more staying power with the majority its sellers. The “deals” are limited to Golf Course homes or dated opportunities that need significant renovations to bring them up to the expectations of potential buyers. MV just had $15m and  $8M homes contracted in the past 3 weeks. Along with increased showings over the holidays, there will likely be multiple contracts in the near future.

- Vacant Land recently has seen an uptick in activity due to REO/ Bulk purchases. But once again, it appears that the owners/sellers of vacant land appear to have staying power as well. That being said, vacant land opportunities come available but if they represent a good value, they tend to not last that long. Examples: Idarado P4 @$600k, Trails Edge 1 @ $250k, Trails Edge #2 @ $250k and the current Elk Run Bank owned lot under contract scheduled to close soon.

– Condos within the Mountain Village.  This is one of the best opportunities for buyers in the coming 12 months.  There are several developments offering overpriced units currently.  This is about to change with several complexes as all are re-evaluating their pricing. There will be a significant price adjustment that buyers should feel more comfortable “jumping into”. Be ready, upon this adjustment, units should be moving quickly. Don’t miss your opportunity!

Be sure to ask your Telluride Properties Broker about any of these market segments.

While the Telluride regional market has seen an uptick in activity year over year, there still is one thing that remains the same. The Telluride lifestyle is unmatched! Upcoming events include Women’s Ski Week and Telluride Comedy Festival February 13-19 Telluride Aids Benefit; March 1-5 and as always….  the skiing is amazing!

A Beautiful Day at the Telluride Ski Resort

“If you don’t do it this year, you’ll be one year older when you do.” –Warren Miller.

 

 

Happy Holidays and Welcome Back to Telluride!

Gigger Gavin

Written by Brian Gavin, Broker

Things have certainly picked up over the Christmas/New Year’s holiday and it’s great to see town packed again.  I love this time of year as it gives me a chance to reconnect with out-of-town friends and is a great reminder of why so many people love to call Telluride home.  The spirit of the holidays is in the air and you can see how excited people are to be back.  My parents continually ask me, when are we going to move closer to home and I tell them that if you can show me another place similar to here then I might think about it, but until then this is the place for us.  With over $86 million in pending contracts in San Miguel County, 2012 is shaping up to be a great year as more people strive to get away from their stress of daily life outside the bubble and commit to experience more of the “Telluride Lifestyle.”  Oh the air we’re breathing up here is just fine, fine, fine!

 

Why Telluride?

Why do we choose to live and work here versus any of the other ski areas in the states?

Written by Josh Rapaport, broker

On the Summit of Palmyra Peak 13,320 ft

Quantitatively, when you look at snowfall, ease of travel, most runs, fastest lifts, and other numbers, telluride never tops the list, but when those numbers are paired with raw experience, Telluride comes out near the top.

Christopher Steiner, recently wrote an article in Forbes Magazine, where Telluride ranked number 3 of 5 for the top ski resorts in the United States. He found that an engineer’s look at the numbers never provided the best experience. There are qualitative factors that capture the true ski vacation, and weigh just as heavy as the ‘numbers’. Christopher came up with a new scale called, PURE AWESOMENESS FACTOR, and Telluride scored an 89 out of 100, ranking it number 3 in the United States.

Some of Telluride’s Highlights are:

• Main Street is framed by one of the most magnificent box canyons in the world.
• Telluride has the only free gondola public transportation system of its kind in North America to take you from Telluride over the mountain to Mountain Village.
• At the east end of Telluride, Bridal Veil Falls is Colorado’s tallest free-falling waterfall at 365 ft.
• Telluride Helitrax is Colorado’s only helicopter ski company and has been in operation since 1982.
• Telluride Ski Resort’s newly added terrain over the past few years takes our small mountain into competition with the best in the states.
• Ski Magazine rates Telluride Ski Resort in the Top 10 ski resorts in North America.

We will never be Aspen, Vail, or Park City. We are Telluride, and if you haven’t checked us out, you should come for a visit and see what makes us so unique and unlike any other ski area in the United States.

 

Stress Relief for the Holidays: Enjoy a Relaxing Vacation in Telluride

Written by Jesse DiFiore, Broker Associate

Stressed about the holidays? The holiday rush can add even more pressure on many people who are already experiencing unusually high stress, says psychologist Dr. Laura Maciuika, author of Conscious Calm: Keys to Freedom From Stress and Worry.

“Almost half of adults in the U.S. have reported feeling more high stress than they did a year ago,” explains Dr. Maciuika, a Harvard-trained clinical psychologist. “The holiday rush and economic pressures can make that stress even worse—and yet we’re supposed to be celebrating and having fun! Plus, there is so much information out there about stress, including popular myths—it can be hard to know what works for lasting stress relief, or figure out where to start.”

To help separate the stress myths from realities, Dr. Maciuika has a free Special Report on Stress Myths at http://www.stopstressandworry.com.

Dr. Maciuika suggests three Conscious Calm Tips to ease the holiday stress, feel more relaxed, and be able to enjoy the holiday season more fully:

Conscious Calm Tip No. 1 – Notice the difference between the outside stress (shopping, parties, finances, etc.) and inside stress. Most of us do not pay enough attention to what we’re doing on the inside, in our minds. What we tell ourselves all day long, what we decide something means, how much story-telling we do – these are inside actions we do have control over. They make a huge difference in how we feel. Bring awareness to how you may be adding to inside stress for more choice, control and calm.

Conscious Calm Tip No. 2 - Once you have more awareness of internal stress-creation, remind yourself these are choice points where you do have control. Where you put your attention makes a huge difference in how you feel. If you notice yourself focusing on problems for too long, or telling yourself stressful stories, interrupt those patterns. Choose to put your attention somewhere else. Focusing on deeper, slower breathing can be a useful here; so can focusing on what you’re grateful for. Interrupting automatic pilot thinking is important for getting back to present time and more ease.

Conscious Calm Tip No. 3 - The holiday season can bring “have to attend” parties and other obligations. Be sure to balance those with gatherings or rituals that hold meaning for you. Set some limits—compromise or say “No” if the obligations get too much. The holiday season is a powerful time to create positive memories for yourself and your loved ones. Be sure to include and prioritize activities and get-togethers that will add to that treasure chest of good memories.

This holiday season in Telluride remember these three calming tips. Experiencing a relaxed vacation and holiday is why you decided to bring you family to ski in Telluride. While standing on top of Gold Hill this holiday season don’t forget to stop and take in the views of the La Sal’s, take a deep breath of fresh Telluride Mountain Air and become aware of the joy of being in this amazing ski resort with your family. Whether it is ice skating at the Mountain Village core ice rink, sipping on hot chocolate at Alpino Vino or just walking around town, embody the meaning of the season, you’re only at the top ski resort in the world.

If you are one of the lucky ones and you have that urge that your family must have a piece of Telluride, remember the golden rule of Telluride Real Estate – location, location, location. Don’t be fooled by bank owned, short sales or discounted properties which might not be the best fit for your family and the coming vacations in Telluride. The Telluride real estate market is 10% investment, 90% good old family fun! While out with your Telluride Properties Broker, remember why you first decided to come to visit, that article in ski magazine, your best friends advice or just maybe the drive across country that landed you at the end of the box canyon. This is a place for fun, relaxation, and heart beating adventure. These experiences and I mean experiences do not get ruined by the S&P plummeting, disappointing politics or the European economic crisis. They become engraved in your memory as the spirit of adventure, one that you will recall while crunching numbers at your desk, one that your kids will be bragging about at school, and one that you will be dreaming of until you step back in to town.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

 

The old saying, “They ain’t making anymore land”…

Written by Eric Saunders, Broker

The old saying, “They ain’t making anymore land” has never been more evident than right now in the Telluride region.   Supply and demand is one of the most basic laws of real estate and economics.   Yet, the phrase is the functional foundation of the housing market, especially in our quaint little town of Telluride.

The Telluride region is surrounded by federally controlled lands (USFS and BLM) limiting future growth to approximately 14,000 private acres.  Virtually all the land is subject to a master plan which allows for the development of fewer than 4,000 single family units on about 1/3 of the above mentioned ground.

Additionally, the last large developable parcel in the region, the Valley Floor, a 570-acre parcel was just purchased by the Town of Telluride and will remain open space forever.  That is it.  There are no more large development parcels in the region.  There is only fill-in development in Telluride and Mountain Village.

The Telluride real estate market is akin to an island in the mountains and just like an island, there is nowhere else for us to expand.   Unlike Vail, Aspen and most other ski resorts, which have extensive down valley areas with capacity for tens of thousands more units, Telluride and Mountain Village effectively end at the entry to the towns.   What you see is what you get.

Yes, Telluride has been affected by the downturn, which translates into opportunities to acquire ski property at prices we haven’t seen since the 90’s.   However, Telluride real estate parcels are also unique and finite.   One of the many reasons the town of Telluride has maintained value during this difficult time is due to the uniqueness of a number of its properties.  In the last year, Telluride has had 23 properties sell for over $900 per square foot and as high as $1500 per square foot.   This speaks to the iconic nature of certain properties and the “one of a kind” uniqueness a few possess.

Once the economy improves, our market is likely to come back quicker and stronger than any other markets due to the limited amount of supply.  There are only so many vacant lots, ski condos or homes that meet a buyer’s need.  Once they are gone, there are no more.    We are not like most other resorts with thousands of choices.  So, if you love that little condo at the base of the Telluride Ski Resort with a ski shop downstairs, now is the time to fulfill your lifestyle dream.

 

Most Charming Resort: Telluride Ranked #1 for 2011-12

As seen in SkiMag.com

As you roll into this secluded box canyon, you half expect to see “Once upon a time…” inscribed across the sky in Old English script. Whether strolling the quaint main street, curling up by a roaring fireplace in the Mountain Village or dining beneath imposing, Alp-like granite peaks, you just might find your happily ever after.

Telluride was also ranked #8 of 10 resorts for terrain challenge (Aspen was #9 and Vail didn’t place).

 

Giving Thanks

Tis the season to give thanks and celebrate life in Telluride (in no particular order)

Written by Allison Templin, Broker

TELLURIDE: Anyone who has ever been to Telluride is moved by the beauty and charm of this valley. Those of us who live here are grateful, and those of us who have had the opportunity to visit Telluride are grateful!  We do not take this amazing place we call home for granted.  The above photo was taken from my deck in the east end of the Town of Telluride. Don’t you wish this were your view?

 

 

 

 

SNOW: We have some. The Telluride ski area opens on Wednesday, November 23^rd for Donation Day. The Telluride Ski and Golf Company will donate 100% of the proceeds to the Telluride Ski and Snowboard Club’s scholarship and financial aid fund.  Lift tickets are only $25, so go skiing!
http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2011/11/20
/news/doc4ec71f3dc5958457279555.txt

 

 

AIR SERVICE:  Great Lakes Airlines has added one additional Saturday and one additional Sunday flight this winter beginning December 10th! These Additional flights can be attributed to TMRAO’s Airline Guarantee Program which derives its revenues from Town government taxes and contributions from Telluride and Montrose businesses/non-profits.  The Telluride Association of Realtors contributes $10,000 annually and Telluride Properties’ brokers contribute a percentage of every sale as well.  Thank your favorite Telluride Properties’ broker for making it easier for you to get here! Click for the Winter 2011-12 Air Service Map

REAL ESTATE: Number of sales are up 17% Year to Date!  This number continues to increase as Buyers continue to take advantage of the unbelievable values and distressed properties.  Below are a few properties that I believe to be a few of the best values in our market place.
Deal #1  Deal #2  Deal #3  Deal #4  Deal #5

Contact me for a complete list of the best deals in Telluride.

 

TWEED INTERIORS & BOUTIQUE: Has a new home in the Town of Telluride.  One of Telluride Properties favorite interior designers has moved to 151 South Pine Street.   Visit the ladies at their new store to discuss your home interior or pick up a cool accessory or gift! http://www.tweedinteriors.com/index.html

 

 

 

 

 

NEW SHOPS TO OPEN IN MOUNTAIN VILLAGE: Telluride Ski and Golf Company opens 3 new retail stores in Heritage Plaza in Mountain Village. TSG is ramping the overall guest experience and convenient shopping. Thank you Telski!

Heritage – Men’s and women’s refined casual- upscale boots, jeans, sweaters, and more
Alpineglow- Skincare and cosmetics boutique with a full service spa
Mountain Standard Time- High-end accessories like watches and sunglasses

TELLURIDE GIVES: Telluride’s first online giving campaign designed to unite the entire community to give back by supporting the great work of our local nonprofits. Telluride nonprofits improve the quality of life foreveryone in the region and TellurideGives raises more than $19,000your generosity helps them make more possible. Thanks to you, we raised $18,021 for the people, animals, environments, and organizations that make up this wonderful place we love. http://telluridegives.razoo.com/

 

Is Telluride a good investment?

Written by Albert Roer, Broker/Owner

I am always asked, “Is Telluride a good investment”?

You can’t put a price on how good an investment Telluride is in yourself and for your family.

Don’t ask about the time value of money, ask about the time value of Life!

Telluride provides a lifestyle second to none! Obviously the skiing is phenomenal, but there is so much more to do. The age-old adage “I came for the winters and stayed for the summers” has never been more true. Telluride is known as the Festival Capital of the Rockies, you will never be board in Telluride. From the Music, Film and Yoga festivals etc, to the endless activities from, the Telluride Academy summer camp programs to hiking, biking, yoga, camping, rafting, kayaking, fly fishing, four wheeling, the list is endless.

Anything you can think of to do, you can do in Telluride.

Do yourself and your family a favor and invest in Telluride and your Life!

In the 20 plus years I have lived in Telluride, This is the strongest buying environment I have seen, and with interest rates at 50 year lows, what are you waiting for.

As Warren Miller says at the end of all his films, if you don’t buy a house in ski country this year you will just be another year older when you do.

Please contact one of our experienced brokers now to learn about all our market has to offer.

 

Neighborhood Report: More Homes Selling In Ski Ranches Than Mountain Village This Year

Written by Mike Shimkonis, Broker

171 Elk Park Road - Ski Ranches

Recognizing a remarkable opening for value in the Telluride area, eleven families have purchased homes in Ski Ranches so far this year. Located five minutes south of the Mountain Village, Ski Ranches was created by ski area founder Joe Zoline in 1972. It is comprised of approximately 220 parcels, many of which have already been built upon. The neighborhood enjoys a rich mix of long-time locals and part-time residents, both of whom enjoy the large expanses of space, the privacy of each lot and the close proximity to town and Mountain Village. Currently home prices are roughly half of what one might pay in Mountain Village or town on a price per foot basis. What is sacrficed in convenience is easily compensated with several benefits including parcels averaging about 1 1/2 acres each, many with views of the Wilson and/or the Sneffels mountain ranges. Design regulations are less stringent (more economic) than either Telluride or Mountain Village. A few parks and access points to open space also make Ski Ranches a desirable place to live. Even horses are allowed although the parcels are too small for practical purposes unless the lot is sunny and near open meadows. Another nice bonus for buyers is that there is no real estate transfer tax in Ski Ranches. In most other subdivisions in the area, there is a 3% real estate transfer tax/assessment that buyers pay, based on the purchase price of the property.

Currently there are 18 homes for sale in Ski Ranches ranging in price from $795,000 to $2,495,000. Year to date, eleven Ski Ranches homes have sold. More homes have sold in Ski Ranches this year than in Mountain Village and the number of sales is about double the historical number of annual homes sales in Ski Ranches (usually 5-7 homes sell in Ski Ranches in any given year).That’s a remarkable statistic until one delves into a current cost-benefit analysis of Mountain Village versus Ski Ranches. The average sold price in Ski Ranches year to date is a little over $1 million and an average price per square foot of $301. The most expensive price per square foot paid year to date was $436/foot for a high-end distressed Ski Ranch home on 1.5 acres on Spruce Way. The least expensive price per square foot paid year to date was $205/foot for a bank-owned home on Ridge Road. Keep in mind that quality of the land and the improvements substantially impact property values and price per foot. Finally, it’s important to note there are some compelling values in Mountain Village too, but there are many homes there that haven’t adjusted their asking prices at all or enough to compel buyers to make offers. Also, the price range for homes in Mountain Village is significantly broader than Ski Ranches but if you are looking in the $3 million or less range, taking a look at homes in Ski Ranches would be a good idea.

If you have considered purchasing in the Telluride area and have not considered Ski Ranches, take a step back and re-evaluate whether or not it is a viable option for your family. There are many examples of part-timers in Ski Ranches who originally thought they would be buying in the towns of Telluride and Mountain Village. Also, the more that families have visited here, the more comfortable they are owning on the “outskirts” of both towns. Owners include oil & gas executives, retired military officers (like General Norman Schwarzkopf), artists and musicians, restauranteurs, lawyers, doctors, entrepreneurs and many others who are very happy they own an attractive slice of Telluride.

Ski Ranches Single Family Solds
Year	Average Sold Price	% Year to Year	Avg $/SF	% Year to Year
2006	$1,365,000	n/a	$458	n/a
2007	$1,510,000	+10.6%	$531	+15.9%
2008	$1,439,500	-4.7%	$462	-13.0%
2009	$575,000	-60.1%	$178	-61.5%
2010	$1,384,317	+140.8%	$359	+101.7%
2011 YTD	$1,012,955	-26.8%	$301	-16.2%
Includes all sales found in Telluride MLS.

The information contained in this spreadsheet is from reliable sources but is not guaranteed to be completely accurate. Further investigation may be necessary.